In the early 2000s, I noticed that lots of good American jobs were being lost to China. I was taught in college economics that trade was always win-win and that the government should stay out of the economy. I started reading the literature and found a number of flaws with these free trade and extreme free-market doctrines. The flaws were there in plain sight, but US trade economists, with vanishingly few exceptions, were ignoring them. Not only were the costs to our economy and our workers enormous, but the frustration of American workers with 30 years of failed promises by both parties has made our politics angrier and more divisive.
I wrote
Industrial Policy for the United States: Winning the Competition for Good Jobs and High-Value Industries
I was excited to read this book, co-authored by a former president of the American Economic Association, because it proved using the same mathematical modeling that economists love, that trade is sometimes—often, in fact—win/lose.
Specifically, when a developed country like the US loses a large or high-value industry to another country, it loses more than it gains by being able to import the industry’s products at a lower cost. This encouraged me to dig further into the problems with US trade policy.
Ralph Gomory and William Baumol adapt classical trade models to the modern world economy.
In this book Ralph Gomory and William Baumol adapt classical trade models to the modern world economy. Trade today is dominated by manufactured goods, rapidly moving technology, and huge firms that benefit from economies of scale. This is very different from the largely agricultural world in which the classical theories originated. Gomory and Baumol show that the new and significant conflicts resulting from international trade are inherent in modern economies.Today improvement in one country's productive capabilities is often attainable only at the expense of another country's…
I loved this book because it helped me understand why the Washington Consensus policies of unchecked globalism, including free trade and unregulated markets, are inequitable and destabilizing. It convincingly explains why they have never been and never will be truly accepted by other countries.
Importantly, it helped me to understand how their application in the US has created the conditions that are causing its own incipient turn away from free trade and unregulated markets. Written with great clarity, it freed me to think more broadly about alternatives.
Hailed by Kirkus Reviews as both "a convincing analysis of an international economy headed for disaster" and a "powerful challenge to economic orthodoxy," False Dawn shows that the attempt to impose the Anglo-American-style free market on the world will create a disaster, possibly on the scale of Soviet communism. Even America, the supposed flagship of the new civilization, risks moral and social disintegration as it loses ground to other cultures that have never forgotten that the market works best when it is embedded in society. John Gray, well known in the 1980s as an important conservative political thinker, whose writings…
Social Security for Future Generations
by
John A. Turner,
This book provides new options for reform of the Social Security (OASI) program. Some options are inspired by the U.S. pension system, while others are inspired by the literature on financial literacy or the social security systems in other countries.
An example of our proposals inspired by the U.S. pension…
This book made it crystal clear to me why the US cannot prosper long-term without being a manufacturing powerhouse.
It helped me understand how outsourcing manufacturing to other countries not only costs jobs and national prosperity but also makes it less likely that the next important advance in the outsourced industry would be made in the US. Since productivity increases fastest in manufacturing, losing it also slows economic growth.
When financial journalist Eamonn Fingleton anticipated the meltdown of the New Economy in the late nineties, his predictions were dismissed by mainstream economic writers as "farfetched. " Now, with the New Economy in ruins and America mired in recession, Fingleton's avowedly contrarian take on mainstream economic thinking is all the more urgent. Written in clear, lucid prose that renders the complexity of the world economy clear to the general reader, Unsustainable is a masterly survey of how the U. S. economy's turn from manufacturing to a more service-based, "postindustrial" economybased on finance, entertainment, and computer softwarehas been an unmitigated disaster…
This book makes the novel and, to me, fascinating case that the economy is an evolutionary system that is constantly changing, implying that the static equilibria of conventional trade models are not usefully predictive. It also made it clear to me, from a different perspective, that the industries in which a country succeeds are path-dependent.
If you are a mosquito, the next evolutionary mutation will not produce an elephant. Likewise, it is much easier to design and manufacture 3 nanometer-scale chips if you have already designed and manufactured 5 nanometer-scale chips. This drove home to me how important retaining the key industries of today is for our long-term prosperity.
Over 6.4 billion people participate in a $36.5 trillion global economy, designed and overseen by no one. How did this marvel of self-organized complexity evolve? How is wealth created within this system? And how can wealth be increased for the benefit of individuals, businesses, and society? In The Origin of Wealth, Eric D. Beinhocker argues that modern science provides a radical perspective on these age-old questions, with far-reaching implications. According to Beinhocker, wealth creation is the product of a simple but profoundly powerful evolutionary formula: differentiate, select, and amplify. In this view, the economy is a "complex adaptive system" in…
Social Security for Future Generations
by
John A. Turner,
This book provides new options for reform of the Social Security (OASI) program. Some options are inspired by the U.S. pension system, while others are inspired by the literature on financial literacy or the social security systems in other countries.
An example of our proposals inspired by the U.S. pension…
When I was an investment banker in the 80s and early 90s, the prevailing mantra was that what was good for Wall Street was good for the country. Nevertheless, I wondered whether slicing and dicing mortgages into different classes of derivatives and selling them to other financial institutions actually added value to the real economy.
This book made it clear to me that it does not and shows how the overgrowth of the financial sector—rising from four to five percent of GDP in the 1970s to over eight percent in the 2000s—caused the Great Recession of 2008. This explosion of debt was used almost exclusively to buy existing assets, thus crowding out lending for plant, equipment, and research.
The Recession is over, but financialization, a powerful and independent factor undermining US industrial policy, continues unchecked.
"A well-told exploration of why our current economy is leaving too many behind." —The New York Times
In looking at the forces that shaped the 2016 presidential election, one thing is clear: much of the population believes that our economic system is rigged to enrich the privileged elites at the expense of hard-working Americans. This is a belief held equally on both sides of political spectrum, and it seems only to be gaining momentum.
A key reason, says Financial Times columnist Rana Foroohar, is the fact that Wall Street is no longer…
After WWII, America abandoned industrial policy in favor of free trade and free markets. Now, 70 years later, we are losing out to China and others who use all-of-government industrial policies to target our high-value industries and the good jobs and wealth they produce.
The book advocates for a comprehensive, coherent industrial policy for the United States. It explains how industrial policy works—its economics, history, tools, successes, and failures. Then, building on actions taken by the Trump and Biden administrations proposes much more aggressive and systematic measures that combine a) support for research and commercialization of new technologies, b) trade policies to protect them, and c) controls on international capital flows to end the overvaluation of the dollar and balance our trade.
